Hard Currency

The dollar is on the rise, suggesting the market is either unfazed by the prospect of a Trump presidency or has yet to focus on it. Jordan Rochester of Nomura tells Roger Blitz that a Trump triumph wouldn’t be the first “shock” to be ignored by the market

 

Steven Englander of Citigroup tells Roger Blitz why global concerns have moved on from the UK’s European travails to the search for yield, China and Trump

 

The UK vote was a shock, but is it a systemic one? Michael Metcalfe of State Street tells Roger Blitz there are already signs that the rest of the world can quarantine the impact of Brexit around the UK

 

With sterling heading south and no sign of an end to UK political instability, the market will be looking to the Bank of England governor to calm nerves, Baring Asset Management’s Alan Wilde tells Roger Blitz

 

In an EU referendum special, Roger Blitz discusses the short and long-term consequences of the shock victory for the Leave camp with FX strategists Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon and Kit Juckes of Societe Generale. They also discuss where the pain will be felt the most.

 

Leaving the EU will have a number of potential knock-on effects, John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz – including a UK rate cut, the return of QE, eurozone pressures and a sharp drop in the pound. But if history is a guide, sterling could well return to current levels once the dust has settled

 

On the FX battlefield, investors worry about the EU referendum but not a Trump presidency. That won’t last, Jeremy Cook of World First tells Roger Blitz

 

The yen hasn’t followed the script so far this year, at least that of Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan. Its rise against the dollar this year is causing a headache, and Morgan Stanley’s Hans Redeker tells Richard Blackden why authorities are going to have to live with it.

 

A fall in the yuan’s daily fix to a five-year low has the market wondering whether China is heading for another bout of currency devaluation jitters. Paul McNamara of GAM tells Roger Blitz that a strong dollar is bound to cause problems for China, but not on the scale of previous episodes of FX volatility.

 

You thought dollar weakness was here to stay? Think again, Société Générale’s Vincent Chaigneau tells Roger Blitz, as market assumptions are once again turned on their head. Don’t assume, however, that a strong dollar means a weak yen and don’t be surprised if China currency concerns resurface.