Hard Currency

Theresa May’s snap election caused a surge in the pound and had investors purring at the idea that a smooth Brexit is coming. Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management tells Roger Blitz whether he thinks the market’s optimism is justified and looks at the euro’s prospects after Sunday’s first round in the French presidential election

 

Investors seemed fairly relaxed about the French presidential election until far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon spoiled their mood by polling strongly. Nomura’s Jordan Rochester tells Roger Blitz what his emergence spells for the euro and explains how to trade the markets between the first and second rounds of the election.

 

The official start of Britain’s negotiations to leave the EU hasn’t done further damage to the pound. But George Saravaleos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, says that the messy politics of Brexit will eventually catch up with sterling.

 

The first quarter’s popular bets – strong dollar, weak peso, high yields – did not pan out the way investors expected. But Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz that the next few months promise decent returns in forex despite ongoing worries about political risk

 

Not many, says Steven Barrow of Standard Bank. There may be some short-term upside for the euro, the pound and emerging market currencies, he tells Roger Blitz, but none of these are likely to stay supported as investors itch to revive the dollar rally.

 

A dovish Federal Reserve is giving grief to the greenback, but Sam Lynton-Brown of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz there is good reason to expect the dollar to keep rising, while there is a fair chance that sterling will enjoy short-term support

 

Strong Eurozone growth and inflation has increased talk about the European Central Bank moving away from easy monetary conditions. But Max Kettner of Commerzbank tells Roger Blitz why the case for a stronger euro is balanced at best

 

Hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials was the big dollar driver this week, but Steven Englander of Citigroup tells Roger Blitz why investors should still keep faith in the Trumpflation trade

 

Itchy investors are saying goodbye and good riddance to February in the forex market. Kathleen Brooks of City Index tells Roger Blitz that there is much more to look forward to in March, but for the moment, dollar uncertainty is the dominant theme, followed by rising European political risk and a more measured view of Brexit

 

The pound has proved surprisingly resilient around the $1.25 level, even as inflation data out this week looked lacklustre. Koon Chow of UBP tells Michael Hunter what is on the watchlist for the UK currency and takes a tour or the agenda for the dollar and the euro