Hard Currency

The Bank of England split highlights how central banks are preparing to end years of easing and shift to monetary tightening. But how fast will the change come and how will the pound and other currencies respond? Commerzbank’s senior economist Peter Dixon discusses the moves with Roger Blitz, and looks at how the causes of inflation and the way it is measured are also under review.

 

Bilal Hafeez of Nomura steers Roger Blitz through a turbulent forex week, which saw markets downplay the hawkish rate hike of the Federal Reserve, buy and sell the pound on a hung parliament, Brexit uncertainty and Bank of England dissent and get caught out by Canadian policymakers’ change of tune.

 

The election of a minority Tory government has thrown the UK into another bout of political uncertainty, yet investors are not rushing to ditch sterling. Kit Juckes of Societe Generale and Simon Derrick of BNY Melllon tell Roger Blitz why its relative cheapness and prospects of a soft Brexit are keeping the pound afloat, but they doubt whether the currency can withstand the turbulence of a hung parliament

 

Derek Halpenny from MUFG joins Michael Hunter to assess the outlook for the pound in the final run-up to the UK election, and also takes a look at the political risk faced by a resurgent euro

 

A stronger euro, a weaker dollar, a nervous pound – currencies sparred with each other but none looked capable of delivering a knockout blow. Tim Graf of State Street tells Roger Blitz why the market is in a circumspect, defensive mood

 

A frenzied week in forex saw the dollar and emerging market currencies come under fire, while investors loved the euro and took the pound through $1.30. Jane Foley of Rabobank sifts through the moves and tells Roger Blitz that while Donald Trump’s woes were a catalyst, the big investor worry is about China and the US economy.

 

China is tightening liquidity, commodities have fallen, oil is volatile. So why is Goldman Sachs’ Kamakshya Trivedi upbeat about emerging market currencies? It’s all about current account balances, inflation, very good trade data and a shift in political risk, he tells Roger Blitz

 

Millennium Global’s Richard Benson talks to Roger Blitz about the forex developments of the week, including the pound’s resilience in the face of a furious Brexit brawl and the likely impact on the dollar and the euro if next month delivers both a US rate hike and ECB tapering signals

 

There are too many snags to offer a convincing case for buying the dollar, the euro and sterling, says Adrian Owens of GAM. He tells Roger Blitz why he thinks there are better opportunities in emerging market currencies

 

Theresa May’s snap election caused a surge in the pound and had investors purring at the idea that a smooth Brexit is coming. Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management tells Roger Blitz whether he thinks the market’s optimism is justified and looks at the euro’s prospects after Sunday’s first round in the French presidential election