Hard Currency

A stronger euro, a weaker dollar, a nervous pound – currencies sparred with each other but none looked capable of delivering a knockout blow. Tim Graf of State Street tells Roger Blitz why the market is in a circumspect, defensive mood

 

A frenzied week in forex saw the dollar and emerging market currencies come under fire, while investors loved the euro and took the pound through $1.30. Jane Foley of Rabobank sifts through the moves and tells Roger Blitz that while Donald Trump’s woes were a catalyst, the big investor worry is about China and the US economy.

 

China is tightening liquidity, commodities have fallen, oil is volatile. So why is Goldman Sachs’ Kamakshya Trivedi upbeat about emerging market currencies? It’s all about current account balances, inflation, very good trade data and a shift in political risk, he tells Roger Blitz

 

Millennium Global’s Richard Benson talks to Roger Blitz about the forex developments of the week, including the pound’s resilience in the face of a furious Brexit brawl and the likely impact on the dollar and the euro if next month delivers both a US rate hike and ECB tapering signals

 

There are too many snags to offer a convincing case for buying the dollar, the euro and sterling, says Adrian Owens of GAM. He tells Roger Blitz why he thinks there are better opportunities in emerging market currencies

 

Theresa May’s snap election caused a surge in the pound and had investors purring at the idea that a smooth Brexit is coming. Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management tells Roger Blitz whether he thinks the market’s optimism is justified and looks at the euro’s prospects after Sunday’s first round in the French presidential election

 

Investors seemed fairly relaxed about the French presidential election until far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon spoiled their mood by polling strongly. Nomura’s Jordan Rochester tells Roger Blitz what his emergence spells for the euro and explains how to trade the markets between the first and second rounds of the election.

 

The official start of Britain’s negotiations to leave the EU hasn’t done further damage to the pound. But George Saravaleos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, says that the messy politics of Brexit will eventually catch up with sterling.

 

The first quarter’s popular bets – strong dollar, weak peso, high yields – did not pan out the way investors expected. But Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz that the next few months promise decent returns in forex despite ongoing worries about political risk

 

Not many, says Steven Barrow of Standard Bank. There may be some short-term upside for the euro, the pound and emerging market currencies, he tells Roger Blitz, but none of these are likely to stay supported as investors itch to revive the dollar rally.